Put 'em all on an island

How Waiheke Island voted: preliminary results per voting booth (only parties that actually got votes are listed: Libertarianz and Workers Party got nil votes).

	ACT	Alliance	ALCP	Social Credit	Family	Green	Progressive	Kiwi	Labour	Mäori	National	NZF	NZP	RAM	Bill & Ben	Republicans	United Future
Oneroa	29	0	3	0	0	166	7	0	285	3	252	28	0	0	2	1	2
Blackpool	20	1	1	1	1	77	4	0	171	11	154	26	1	0	2	0	4
Onetangi	30	1	3	0	0	125	9	0	193	3	179	27	0	0	3	0	2
Ostend	31	0	9	0	0	227	7	2	344	18	258	55	1	1	7	1	6
Palm Beach	6	0	0	0	0	64	0	0	100	5	119	15	0	0	1	0	0
Rocky Bay	5	0	1	0	0	52	0	0	85	3	84	15	0	0	0	0	0
Surfdale	14	0	1	0	0	45	4	1	112	2	128	18	0	0	1	0	2

National won Surfdale and Palm Beach, while Labour won overall. The Greens did exceptionally well, polling above their national average. Denise basically split the vote and caused Judith Tizard to lose the electorate seat (even though these are the party list votes, not the electorate seat votes). Three-horse races are never good.

Labels: election 2008, Waiheke Island

Every last little electoral demographic is being poured over in the USA to determine who likes what more than the next guy, presumably to better hone the messages for the intended target next time.
A "surprising" factoid came to light that 2004 presidential candidate John Kerry scored better with teh gayz than Obama did this year, 7% better.
Why would that be?
My hunch is that, putting my shallow thinking cap on, we have to look at what Kerry and McCain have in common, rather than what sets Obama apart from McCain for gays. And that's rather obvious: they both have glamorous, filthy rich wives. Cindy "Anheuser-Busch" McCain and Teresa "Heinz" Kerry. Perhaps many (closeted and otherwise) gay men quite fancy the life of a kept boy by a rich woman, and then be able to do what you like. Not my idea of a good life but maybe many think it's less arduous than being married to a career wife such as Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton.

Labels: USA

Nothing riles democratically minded people more than the notion that one vote is worth more than another. Hence the derision with which various electoral systems that produce large power in a small number hands, be it the US electoral college system or the British First-Past-The-Post (FPP).
New Zealand got rid of FPP several elections ago, and of course many are still pining for the good old days when a few well drawn rural electorates could ensure (twice) that the natural party of Government prevailed, even if its total number of votes didn't. The peasants got sick of tugging their forelocks and ushered in MMP (modelled on Germany).
So last night's result is a good indicator of what is currently wrong with MMP and what needs changing to ensure something resembling our democratic ideals.
First there is the two-seat "overhang", extra seats that are created because some parties win more electorate seats than their party vote entitles them to.
Then there is the 5% threshold for party votes to guarantee seat allocation.
And third the "coat-tail" seats, when parties get extra seats because they won one electorate but not 5% overall.
All these flaws were in play last night: the Maori Party got 2 overhang seats, ACT got 4 coat-tail seats and NZF got no seats at all despite polling higher than ACT nationally.

So time to get rid of these flaws and this what a democratic parliament should look like based on last night's results (it is a moot point that had these flaws been removed, people would have voted differently because there would be no longer need for "tactical" voting). Percentages translated into seats by multiplying by 1.2. The last figure is the difference with the current outcome.

National: 45.45% = 54.54 seats = 55 (-4)
Labour: 33.77% = 40.52 seats = 41 (-2)
Green: 6.43% = 7.72 seats = 8 (-)
ACT: 3.72% = 4.46 seats = 4 (-1)
Maori Party: 2.24% = 2.69 seats = 3 (-2)
Progressive: 0.93% = 1.12 seats = 1 (-)
NZ First: 4.21% = 5.05 seats = 5 (+5)
United Future: 0.89% = 1.07 seats = 1 (-)
Kiwi Party: 0.56% = 0.67 seats = 1 (+1)
Bill & Ben Party: 0.51% = 0.61 seats = 1 (+1)

So a National/Act/UF/Kiwi Government would be possible. And will it be Bill or Ben as members?
Anyway, on another note, one of the faux electorate contests took place in my own with the sitting Labour member ejected by the Green candidate splitting the vote to let the Tory girl in. Three-horse races are never conducive to good outcomes.
So we're off to celebrate with the Green Party on Waiheke. Perhaps I could lobby my old mate and freshly minted Green MP Kevin Hague to draw up a Private Member's Bill to remedy those MMP flaws, preferably before the Tories throw the whole thing out and go back to shire rule.

Labels: election 2008

The United States of America finally dragged itself into the 20th Century with the election of a non-Caucasian president. Maybe next time round they will manage to get with the play of the 21st Century by electing a woman. Hell will freeze over, of course, before they will ever join the Enlightenment and actually elect a queer person (Lincoln excepted, perhaps) or, even more unimaginable, an atheist.
Considering the outcome of the latest cultural war battle, the gay marriage referendums in California and Florida, America is obviously not ready for a real kind of change.
We can be rather smug in New Zealand on that score, even though there has never been a Maori (or, to my knowledge, queer) Prime Minister. But we have already managed to get women twice - and the choice on Saturday is far broader than what was on offer in that democratic bastion of consumer choice, USA.

Labels: politics, USA

One of the prominent casualties of the financial crisis so far (if you discount the failure of US banks such as Lehman Brothers) is Iceland.
Jon Danielsson of the London School of Economics wrote a great summary of the Icelandic crisis for the BBC and you have to feel sorry for the 300,000 Icelanders (even though they do hunt whales!) who fell victim to this particular kind of greedy capitalism by their banks and the failure of proper regulation of assets and debt obligations and guarantees by their Government.
But what really scares me are the many aspects of that crisis that are applicable in New Zealand too:

"The key factor in Iceland's failure has been the monetary policy pursued by its central bank, in particular inflation targeting, similar to the UK. [...] Such a policy has a sound foundation in economic theory and is often appropriate for large countries. In the case of Iceland, it was disastrous."

Our Reserve Bank has an identical inflation targeting policy, and we're a midget country too.

"In a small economy like Iceland high interest rates both encourage domestic firms and households to borrow in foreign currency, and also attract currency speculators."

The infamous Belgian dentists and Japanese housewives have been doing brisk business in the NZ$ carry trade over the years.

"This brought large inflows of foreign currency, leading to sharp exchange rate increases, giving the Icelanders an illusion of wealth.
The speculators and borrowers profited from the interest rate difference between Iceland and abroad as well as the exchange rate appreciation"

Our illusion of wealth is expertly reflected in our recent huge house price inflation New Zealanders of course almost never borrow money to invest in income generating companies. Houses are what all that cash went into. So much more comfortable to be a landlord than an entrepreneur.

"These effects encouraged economic growth and inflation, further leading the central bank to raise interest rates. The end result is a bubble caused by the interaction between domestic interest rates and inflows of foreign currency."

NZ interest rates are still among the highest in the developed world.

"The exchange rate was increasingly out of touch with economic fundamentals, with a rapid depreciation of the currency inevitable. This should have been clear to the central bank, which wasted several good opportunities to prevent exchange rate appreciations and build up reserves."

Did our Reserve Bank build up sufficient foreign reserves when the currency was high? Our dollar has certainly tanked recently, despite the high base rate.

"The second factor in the implosion of the Icelandic economy this week has been the size of its banking sector. Before the crisis, the Icelandic banks had foreign assets worth around 10 times the Icelandic GDP, with debts to match."

New Zealand has barely any banks it actually owns. The vast majority of our banking is controlled by Australian-owned banks. But our foreign debt certainly is massive (over 100% of GDP) and annual current account deficit touching 10% of GDP. Is our economy robust enough when the foreign creditors come urgently knocking to call in their debts as they may need all the cash they can to cover their positions?

"The original cause of the Icelandic crisis was a combination of inappropriate monetary policy and an outsized banking system. Throughout this year, the Icelandic currency has been falling due to the currency speculators running for shelter. This has caused doubts about the Icelandic economy and its banking sector. What eventually tipped the balance was the current extreme global financial uncertainty, the mishandling of the crisis by the Icelandic authorities and the overreaction of the UK authorities."

All sounds horribly familiar to me. But the end game touches on the positives too:

"Fortunately, the long-run macroeconomic potential is good. Iceland is a natural resource-based economy, with plenty of untapped natural resources and well educated workforce."

There are quite a few lessons to learn by New Zealand from Iceland. And add to that, Iceland can be fast-tracked to European Union membership (as it is already in the EEA/EFTA) if it wanted to. Which makes it all the more urgent to look at our options too.

Labels: economics, Iceland

A two-year long, three-ring circus, every four years. You wish you could away from it at the other end of the world but there is nowhere to run and hide anymore.
And what a contrast with a subdued, cheap and short electoral cycle in New Zealand. And so much more democratic too (not completely though: we'd have to wait for a full list electoral system by getting rid of all the general and Maori electorate seats). Whatever happened to the one-man-one-vote credo? The political filtering is not only done by money but by distorting political systems too. It's sad to see no-one in the US is bitter about that.

Labels: USA

From Gaynz.com's forum:

1] Favourite Possession? My library
2] Sexiest style of underwear as worn by another person? Jockstrap or commando
3] Do you go to a hygienist at the dentists regularly? Please explain your attitude to dentistry? Annual checkups, more regular sessions at the periodontist, my gums are more trouble than my teeth
4] If you were an animal and wanted to have sex with another animal, what would that animal be? Dolphin
5] What is the Christian name of your ideal man? Linus
6] Which recording star do you really care about? Bjork, David Bowie
7] Beach wear? Baggies, Speedos, Trunks, etc? Sunglasses? Other? I only go to nude beaches
8] Have you ever measured your penis? Of course, you need to do so to avoid complaints
9] Helen or John? Russel "Don't be a whinger, vote ginger!" Norman
10] Name the physical space in which you lost your gay virginity (e.g: car, bed, behind the sand dunes, alleyway) My own bed
11] What was the last piece of food you put in your mouth? A Tim Tam chocolate biscuit with a pink centre (don't ask!)
12] Is oral sex satisfactory? When it's done rightly
13] What was the last piece of music you downloaded? Never done that (I'm old!)
14] Do you use an alarm to wake you in the morning? What is it? clock radio, Radio New Zealand Morning Report
15] How many people of a different racial group than you have you had sex with? Most of them (not pygmies or eskimos yet)
16] Auckland or Wellington? Why? Auckland, but I live a safe and sane distance away from it
17] Ideal Job? The one I have
18] The thing you'd like to find in an antique/second-hand/memorabilia/op-shop shop? A lost Vermeer painting
19] Would you have sex with an All Black even if you weren't attracted to him but he asked? If you had sex with an All Black would you be you be bottom or top or what? I'm not in a position to turn down offers of sex. I would top Dan Carter but would consider playing versatile with Richie McCaw
20] Last fast-food franchise visited? Last order? Burger Fuel, a carbon seaside and spud fries without salt

Labels: meme

Forget about the half-arsed national Party billboards. Now the Greens have set up a billboard generator, where you can upload your own image to have it superimposed with the election slogan "Vote For Me".
But really, I can't wait til this freaking thing is over.

And for the first time in my life I have agreed with something Fran O'Sullivan has written about: She's musing on and recommending a grand coalition (current German Government-style) after the election between Labour and National to steer us through the upcoming economic tsunami.
New Zealand isn't really that far off the situation in Iceland: our current account deficit is massive, our currency under pressure and our overseas debt (and soon the Government budget deficit too) far from sustainable in these credit crunch times.

Labels: election 2008, politics

From The Daily Torygraph (so it must be true):

"The Austrian far-Right politician Jörg Haider was seen drinking in a gay bar shortly before his fatal car crash."

One should not be surprised here. Being a closet homosexual and have far-right views on life, the universe and everything has a long pedigree. Check out these other dudes who I really don't want in my fag club either: SA Nazi leader Ernst Röhm, FBI founder J Edgar Hoover, Ayn Rand New Zealand Fan Club Leader Lindsay Perigo, and now Mr Haider. Control queens, who needs them?

My only experience with Nazi fucking is some trade telling me one night that he used to bed several of the (British) National Front leadership. The sex was forgettable but the remark stuck.

UPDATE: The plot thickens:

"Conservative Austria was in a state of shock today after the male successor to Jörg Haider admitted to having a longstanding "special relationship" with the far right leader who died dramatically in a high speed car crash earlier this month.
Stefan Petzner – the 27-year-old who recently replaced Haider as leader of the right wing Alliance for the Future of Austria and has often appeared in tears on television since his death - effectively outed himself as the deceased’s gay lover while being interviewed on an Austrian radio breakfast show."

Call me old fashioned, but Nazi sex is only fun in bed (as in: Me Germany, you Poland).

UPDATE 2: The BBC reports that Haider was "the man of his life" for Mr Petzner. So not yet out of the closet. Just a romantic entanglement the ancient Spartan way. I trust it came with all the naked wrestling bouts in the dust of Carinthia.

UPDATE 3: The New Zealand National Front protested in Wellington over the weekend and clashed with anti-fascist demonstrators. It was certainly a bit rich in irony, considering the Haider revelations, that said Fronters hurled verbal abuse at the anarchists, calling them "faggots". They should look in the mirror a bit more often. And protest a little less.

Labels: austria, gay

From BBC News:

A British man and woman have been sentenced to three months in jail in Dubai after being found guilty of having sex on a beach.

But what else is a beach for? Sand in the lube may not be conducive to comfortable love making, unless friction is your thing.
But wouldn't the likes of Sarah Palin just love to introduce those kind of laws too in their countries? Then she could have sent the state trooper, making himself useful by arresting her daughter and Levi for having unmarried sex, instead of having him sacked and having all that trouble swirling around her now.

Labels: sex in the news

From an investigative report:

Rugby player investigated over offensive chat up line.
The South Canterbury Rugby Union is investigating a player over an air hostesses [sic] complaint following a player's offensive comment.
A South Canterbury rugby player could have his match payment revoked pending a report into an incident aboard an Air New Zealand flight at the weekend.
The team was travelling from Gisborne to Christchurch via Wellington on Sunday, but was off loaded at Wellington Airport after a flight attendant complained about an offensive comment made to her by one of the players.
Coach Ken Wills says the player was trying to chat the woman up.
He says the comment was four words and was not of a sexual nature, she was not manhandled and it was a verbal comment that the flight attendant took exception to.
The South Canterbury Rugby Union is investigating the incident.
Mr Wills says the team spent four hours on the ground at Wellington Airport awaiting another flight.

Any suggestions as to what those four words were?

"Your Brazilian is showing"
"It comes with nuts?"
"Your girlfriend likes it."
"The pilot liked it."

Labels: rugby

You can buy a pack of them here

Labels: election 2008, Green Party

If only one has the political will a lot is obviously possible. Since yesterday a policy of free public transport after 9am, on weekends and public holidays is being rolled out in New Zealand.
A fully integrated public transport and ticketing system has been created overnight, without much murmuring (except by the transport companies left out by the scheme, such as the car ferries to Waiheke) or problems with participating companies. There's one obvious flaw though: it's only for pensioners.
Everybody else who has to pay the fares still faces a balkanised, un-integrated and costly system. I don't need to remind you that on that very day of free fares for oldies we got finally whacked in our pocket with the 14% season ticket increase: a cruel irony which I messaged to the press secretary of Judith Tizard, who had triumphantly released the policy and had mailed it to me. He was on the phone to me immediately so I could give him another earful.
The massive government subsidy in this pensioner travel scheme to transport companies will be a boon for them: overseas experience sees buses, trains and ferries clogged with older people in off peak periods - and not always to the amusement of the other traveling (and paying) public faced with overloaded vehicles and lengthy waits. And it's far from certain that this windfall will be (even partially) passed on to us in lower general fares.

The politics of it all are, of course, very cynical in these electoral times: the division of the community along age lines by these kind of special interest policies are breath taking but unsurprising. We won't be seeing Grey Power coming along to future ferry fare protest meetings! And will other parties now campaign for their interest groups? Free fares for Maori? For Christians?
But there is also a bigger picture to be considered. How are we ever going to get an integrated system without the Government bulk funding and tendering services? Like Pharmac bulk purchasing drugs for the health system's patients, ARTA could purchase public transport on behalf of all of us, which would make it either free for residents or at a capped monthly charge much lower than the current season ticket price.

Labels: public transport

From the Wellington City Council press release:

Today's Dominion Post story, headed 'Capital's beaches open to nudists', is somewhat misleading. Wellington's beaches aren't 'open to nudists' despite the fact the City Council has removed and replaced an old bylaw relating to the requirement to wear suitable bathing costumes on beaches and other public places in the city.
[...] Earlier this year the Council reviewed a number of bylaws - including the old Harbour, Beaches and Foreshore Bylaw - which, in part, required all persons over 8 years of age who were on, or swam at, a beach to wear a swimsuit or clothes. The wording of the old bylaw was 'clunky' and not really suitable for the 21st century.
[...] Admittedly a review of bylaws is not something that usually excites the community greatly - but we received no submissions relating to beach nudity.

Well, 2000 years of Christianty finally gave way to a more natural approach and views on human nudity.

The removal of the old bylaw does not mean that people can freely remove all their clothes on any city beach.
If someone removes all their clothes on Oriental Bay beach, for example, and then offends other beach users, the Police could be called and could require the person to put their clothes back on.
Nudity is really not an issue on beaches in Wellington City - and we're not expecting a sudden rampant increase in nudity as a result of the withdrawal of the bylaw. Generally, for example, people do not go fully nude on Oriental Bay beach.

I would have thought that the biting wind the city is famous for would put any thought of taking your clothes off anywhere in Wellington, let alone on an inner harbour sand pit.

It is quite well known that the isolated north-eastern end of Breaker Bay Beach, on the South Coast, is Wellington's 'unofficial' nude beach. Because it takes a long and arduous walk through soft sand to get to the beach, relatively few people go there and so people generally are free to sunbathe nude without causing trouble.

In my experience, naked people never cause trouble. It's always the clothed ones that want to beat you up. And why am I not surprised the child beaters are against nudity in all circumstances?

Take my advice: take a nude holiday away from the bureaucrats and Christianists on our very own local (and official!) nude beach on Waiheke!

Labels: nude news, Wellington

From the C4FFF press release:

Waiheke Island commuters are about to find out just much food you can buy for $44. A protest organised by the Campaign for Fair Ferry Fares (C4FFF) will provide food for thought for the island's commuters on 1 October, when Fuller's new monthly ferry fare increases come into effect.
Members of the Campaign for Fair Ferry Fares will be at Matiatia Wharf, showing commuters and ferry users just how much will be coming out of their monthly food budget once they are purchasing tickets and monthly passes at the new increased rates.
Over the past six years, Waiheke commuters have faced dramatic price hikes of 52%. The latest increase of 12.7% has boosted the monthly commuters' pass from $300 to $344 and, for some Waiheke families, the household budget can't stretch any further.
C4FFF spokesperson Cathy Urquhart said, 'For some people on lower incomes, the choice is between fares or food. So we are putting $44 worth of food on the wharf to illustrate the impact for people and their families.'
C4FFF will be urging fellow commuters and community members to write to their politicians and request a reduction in fares.
'ARTA has powers under the new Public Transport Management Act to regulate the route and its affordability, but this will take a minimum of two years to be actioned. We can't wait that long to see the disastrous impact on families and local businesses as people leave the island. We need our politicians to act now'.
C4FFF held its first protest last month on September 1 after Fullers Ferries first announced the price hikes. A coffin full of petitions was carried onto the Fullers 8am sailing to protest against the death of diversity on the island.
The 'Food for Thought' protest will begin at Matiatia Wharf on Wednesday 1 October at 7am and continue until the 8am sailing.

Shirin Brown, one of the members involved in the campaign, will be on the Scrutiny programme (on Triangle Television 1 October 7.30pm, and Stratos Television on October 7 at 9.30pm)

Labels: fullers, Waiheke Island